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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-15 07:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 05:48:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 03:05:22 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-15 07:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL DOUSING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of MANUEL was located near 17.5, -102.5 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 7A
2013-09-15 07:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150544 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...MANUEL DOUSING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 102.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND MANUEL COULD BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-15 05:11:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 02:47:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 03:05:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-09-15 04:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 9 31 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 43 32 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 68 43 30 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 31 5 7 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 29 5 6 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 34 3 5( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 7 19(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 15 25(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MANZANILLO 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) L CARDENAS 50 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) L CARDENAS 64 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ZIHUATANEJO 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) P MALDONADO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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