je.st
news
Tag: manuel
Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 3A
2013-09-14 07:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140543 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...MANUEL NEARLY STATIONARY A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 102.6W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST. MANUEL IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PUNTA SAN TELMO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
Tags: number
public
manuel
storm
Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-14 05:17:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 02:58:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 03:08:01 GMT
Tags: graphics
manuel
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-14 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL NEARLY STATIONARY... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of MANUEL was located near 15.3, -102.5 with movement SW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
manuel
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 3
2013-09-14 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140249 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...MANUEL NEARLY STATIONARY... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 102.5W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MANUEL IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION COULD OCCUR TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
public
manuel
storm
Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-09-14 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140249 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND REPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2. IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM INGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24 HOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
manuel
storm
Sites : [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] next »