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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 9

2013-09-15 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151448 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 103.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 103.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 103.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-15 13:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CENTER OF MANUEL VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 18.2, -103.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 8A

2013-09-15 13:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151154 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ...CENTER OF MANUEL VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 103.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...AND MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. LESSER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND JALISCO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF MANUEL REACHES THE COAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

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