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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-14 19:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 17:49:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 15:08:04 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-14 19:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL MOVING CLOSER TO MEXICO BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS... As of 11:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of MANUEL was located near 16.5, -102.4 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 5A
2013-09-14 19:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141746 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...MANUEL MOVING CLOSER TO MEXICO BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 102.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY STATION AT PUERTO VICENTE GUERRERO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...66 KH/M. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-14 17:18:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 14:51:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 15:08:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-14 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141449 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 MANUEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION ON THE UPSWING. A CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WITH AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. WHILE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 997 MB WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF MANUEL OF 994 MB OR SO. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...A BIT ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEAR THE KNAFF-ZEHR-COURTNEY WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MANUEL COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 50 KT SHOWN BELOW BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THE STORM IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 355/5. MANUEL SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PATH...AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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