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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-13 23:22:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 20:46:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 21:09:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-09-13 22:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST TRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS FROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. INSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS LIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN RELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER... THE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING IF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-09-13 22:42:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 10 19 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 15 27 33 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 91 73 55 41 NA NA NA HURRICANE 3 11 8 7 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 10 7 6 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 50KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 X 14(14) 19(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) L CARDENAS 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 12(12) 13(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-13 22:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of MANUEL was located near 15.6, -102.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 2
2013-09-13 22:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.1W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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