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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-15 10:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. IN FACT...THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS LAST EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE EAST LAST EVENING...MANUEL HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7 KT...TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOON...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFTER LANDFALL... KEEPING THE CENTER OF MANUEL OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO. SINCE THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS QUICKLY DWINDLING. NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE CENTER HAS REACHED LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WIND FIELD OF MANUEL HAS DETACHED FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO ISOLATE THE STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION AND WAVE FIELD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.9N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-09-15 10:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150841 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 14 39 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 42 43 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 36 17 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 11 8 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 11 7 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 2 19(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) P VALLARTA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 24 19(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 48 16(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MANZANILLO 50 4 12(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) L CARDENAS 50 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-09-15 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150840 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 102.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 102.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-15 10:41:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF MANUAL APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of MANUEL was located near 17.9, -102.8 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 8
2013-09-15 10:41:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150840 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...CENTER OF MANUAL APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 102.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THAT MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL SHOULD MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND REMAIN OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT MANUEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF MANUEL REACHES THE COAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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