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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-09-15 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150241 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ELONGATED CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND A 14/2215Z CIRA AMSU OVERPASS...AND T3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...BUT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY NORTHWARD COURSE FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...FORCING MANUEL TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...VERY WARM WATER...MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER...RAPID WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD OCCUR OWING TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SO DISRUPTED THAT REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IN THOSE QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-15 04:41:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS MANUEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of MANUEL was located near 17.2, -102.3 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 7

2013-09-15 04:41:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS MANUEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 102.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND MANUEL COULD BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ALMOST 5 INCHES...122 MM...OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN HUATULCO MEXICO. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 7

2013-09-15 04:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150241 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MANUEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 240SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 330SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 240SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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