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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 11:14:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 08:37:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 09:07:28 GMT
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manuel
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-09-18 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180838 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 MANUEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF CURVATURE...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER THE MUCH COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE PENINSULA...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/04. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TONIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MANUEL WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS AS A WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN MANUEL REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT WITH A MORE GRADUAL BEND IN THE MOTION...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THOSE AIDS AT DAYS 3 AND 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 23.2N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-09-18 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 9 13 21 40 NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 35 30 29 32 43 NA TROPICAL STORM 63 57 55 52 44 17 NA HURRICANE X 2 7 6 3 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 7 6 3 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 9(12) 7(19) 2(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 1 11(12) 11(23) 4(27) 5(32) 1(33) X(33) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 8( 9) 8(17) 4(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 4 22(26) 10(36) 3(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) CULIACAN 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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manuel
Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.2, -107.8 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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manuel
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-09-18 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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