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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-09-18 16:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 107.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 107.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 16
2013-09-18 16:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181440 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 107.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 13:40:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 11:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 09:07:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 13:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.2, -107.8 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 15A
2013-09-18 13:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181139 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 107.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...5 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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