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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-12 19:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAIN BANDS FROM DOLORES AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 the center of DOLORES was located near 15.6, -102.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 5A
2015-07-12 19:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 121754 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...RAIN BANDS FROM DOLORES AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.1W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.1 West. Dolores is moving west-northwestward to northwestward near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is forecast to remain offshore and move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to increase near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-12 17:00:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 15:00:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2015 14:49:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-07-12 16:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121453 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 There has been no appreciable change to the organization of Dolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours. Satellite data show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped convection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of the circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery suggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective burst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak classifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 1200 UTC. A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used to keep the intensity at 40 kt. The initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or 305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United States should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward heading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed by 48 hours. Global models are in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low through 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula. After 72 hours, the model solutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther north due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the cyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off of the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to the left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model consensus minus the GFDL solution. Dolores seems poised to strengthen. Atmospheric and oceanic thermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification through about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70 percent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However, the SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly shear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not enough to impede intensification. Beyond 96 hours, water temperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should have already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air, which should promote weakening. The intensity at the end of the forecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores gains by that time. Like previous forecasts, the current one is near or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS model guidance. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected intensification and associated increase in the size of the wind field. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-07-12 16:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 121449 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) 5(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 4(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) 4(19) 1(20) P VALLARTA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 8(27) 2(29) 1(30) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 18(20) 14(34) 5(39) 5(44) 1(45) 1(46) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 3 19(22) 9(31) 4(35) 4(39) 2(41) 1(42) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 37 7(44) 2(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50) ZIHUATANEJO 34 31 3(34) 1(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) ACAPULCO 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 27(38) 14(52) 4(56) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) 3(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 12(24) 5(29) 2(31) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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