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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-07-14 16:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 141452 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-14 11:17:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 08:40:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 09:08:35 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-07-14 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140838 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 The satellite presentation overnight shows an improved cloud pattern with a well-developed symmetric Central Dense Overcast and cloud tops of -80 degrees C. Microwave overpasses also indicate developing spiral bands over the western portion of the cyclone. Objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates along with an earlier AMSU-B estimate support increasing the initial intensity to 70 kt. There is some northerly shear that appears to be impinging on the northwestern quadrant of the system but, guidance indicates that the shear will relax within the next 12-24 hours and the upper flow pattern over the southern half of the system is quite diffluent. The intensity forecast continues to reflect strengthening to a major hurricane in 36-48 hours as indicated by the SHIPS model and the GFS, which has been exhibiting some intensity skill this season. Afterward, gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over cooler water and into the southern extent of a southward propagating stable air mass. A series of microwave overpasses suggest that Dolores is moving slightly to the left of track or, westward at 280/5 kt within the weak peripheral flow of a ridge stretching over Texas and northern Mexico. Dynamical guidance indicates that this current motion is temporary, however, and a turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and should continue during the next couple of days. Beyond the 48 hour period, the global models show the ridge strengthening and building westward into Baja California. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause Dolores to gradually increase in forward speed while continuing on a west-northwest heading through 96 hours. At the end of the period, the forecast indicates a turn toward the northwest which is based on the GFEX, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous forecast to correspond with the GFEX and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-07-14 10:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140838 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 11(20) 2(22) X(22) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 22(26) 35(61) 17(78) 8(86) X(86) X(86) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 19(22) 21(43) 10(53) 1(54) X(54) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 22(29) 7(36) 1(37) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-14 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES INTENSIFIES A LITTLE... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 the center of DOLORES was located near 17.3, -107.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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