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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 9
2015-07-13 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 131445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...DOLORES GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 106.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch east of Punta San Telmo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 106.0 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a hurricane later today, and a major hurricane on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through early this afternoon. RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from the state of Michoacan to Jalisco. Isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are possible. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-07-13 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 131445 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 112.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.7N 118.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-07-13 16:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 131445 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 6(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) MANZANILLO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 6( 8) 31(39) 22(61) 19(80) 3(83) X(83) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 23(46) 3(49) 1(50) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 17(27) 1(28) 1(29) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 13(33) 3(36) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-13 13:46:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 11:46:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 09:07:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-13 13:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 the center of DOLORES was located near 16.7, -105.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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