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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 11
2015-07-14 04:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140230 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...DOLORES MOVING SLOWLY... ...LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 106.9W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 106.9 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch will be possible from some of the outer bands of Dolores affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico in the states of Colima and Jalisco. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-07-14 04:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140230 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.9W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 170NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.9W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-07-14 04:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 140230 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 3(23) X(23) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 10(18) 2(20) X(20) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 13(16) 33(49) 23(72) 11(83) 1(84) X(84) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 13(14) 22(36) 13(49) 1(50) 1(51) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 10(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 9(35) 1(36) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-13 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 20:35:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 20:32:43 GMT
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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-07-13 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 Dolores is strengthening. Visible satellite imagery shows the inner core of the cyclone becoming better organized, and a ragged eye has become evident during the past few hours. There is also a long curved band wrapping entirely around the circulation. The upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west, likely the result of a persistent west-northwesterly flow associated with a trough to the northwest. A Dvorak classification of T4.0 from SAB and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.5 are used to raise the initial intensity to 65 kt. Recent fixes suggest that Dolores' forward speed has decreased considerably since this morning, and the initial motion estimate is 295/08. Dolores is about to reach the western edge of a subtropical ridge over the south-central United States, which should result in continued west-northwestward motion but at an even slower forward speed. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild some in 48 to 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFS are still at odds on exactly how much. These models and the remaining model suite have track solutions that are significantly divergent late in the period, and the official track forecast has been adjusted close to the multi-model consensus, which is nearly midway between the ECWMF and GFS. The track forecast has also been slowed down throughout the forecast period, following the trends of the latest guidance. Nearly optimal thermodynamic parameters such as sea surface temperatures of 29-30 deg C and high tropospheric moisture in the near-storm environment should promote further strengthening. Only some west-northwesterly shear could slow the rate of intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Dolores seems poised to reach major hurricane strength and could potentially intensify more than forecast as a result of the very conducive environmental factors. A gradual spin-down of the vortex is forecast after 72 hours once the cyclone reaches cooler waters and a drier and more stable atmosphere. The statistical guidance has responded to the current intensification and shows Dolores reaching a peak intensity of around 105 kt in 48-72 hours, and the official forecast follows suit. The official forecast continues to be above the multi-model intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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