je.st
news
Tag: dolores
Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 12
2015-07-14 10:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 140837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ...DOLORES INTENSIFIES A LITTLE... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 107.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 107.5 West. Dolores is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A continued west-northwestward motion is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible along the southwestern coast of Mexico in the states of Colima and Jalisco. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-07-14 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 140837 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.5W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 107.5W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 107.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane DOLORES Graphics
2015-07-14 04:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 02:32:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 02:31:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
dolores
hurricane graphics
Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-07-14 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140231 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 After the strengthening episode noted earlier today, the intensity trend has, at least temporarily, leveled off. The cloud pattern has not become significantly better organized, and Dvorak T-numbers have not increased, over the past several hours. Thus the current intensity estimate is held at 65 kt. The dynamical guidance calls for decreasing shear and the cyclone should continue to traverse a very warm ocean during the next 48 hours. So, although Dolores has not been strengthening in the short term, there remains a high likelihood for a significant increase in intensity over the next couple of days. The official wind speed forecast, like the previous one, calls for the system to become a major hurricane by Wednesday. This is similar to the latest LGEM model prediction. Dolores has slowed down some more, and is moving a little to the left of its earlier heading. Satellite fixes yield a motion estimate of 285/05 kt. The slow forward speed should continue as Dolores moves near the periphery of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge to its north. Little change has been made to the previous track forecast, and this official forecast is near the southern side of the dynamical track guidance suite. This is closest to the latest ECMWF prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.2N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-14 04:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES MOVING SLOWLY... ...LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 the center of DOLORES was located near 17.2, -106.9 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
dolores
Sites : [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] next »