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Hurricane DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2015-07-13 22:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 132033 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 1(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 5(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 6 5(11) 2(13) 3(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 8(10) 24(34) 27(61) 18(79) 3(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 20(47) 2(49) 1(50) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15(27) 1(28) 1(29) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 14(35) 3(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Summary for Hurricane DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-13 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 the center of DOLORES was located near 17.2, -106.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane DOLORES Public Advisory Number 10

2015-07-13 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 132032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...DOLORES REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 106.5W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dolores was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 106.5 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with some further decrease in forward speed should continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico in the states of Colima and Jalisco. Isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are possible. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 10

2015-07-13 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132031 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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