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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 8

2015-07-13 10:41:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130841 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.0W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 105.0W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 106.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 109.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 116.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 105.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Graphics

2015-07-13 07:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 05:40:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 03:07:49 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-13 07:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 the center of DOLORES was located near 16.4, -104.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 7A

2015-07-13 07:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130538 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 100 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...DOLORES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 104.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.5 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Dolores should begin to move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico later this morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight through Monday. RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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