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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 13:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NEARLY STATIONARY AND POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 31.0, -80.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-08-28 13:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES NEARLY STATIONARY AND POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 80.7W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the poorly defined circulation associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 80.7 West. The system has been moving little, and a slow and erratic motion is forecast through this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later today and move along the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday morning and then become post-tropical by Tuesday night. Although satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization, the center of circulation is not yet well defined. Only a slight increase in the definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the upper South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 11:03:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 09:03:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 09:33:20 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-08-28 10:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 280856 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten continues to lack a well-defined center, as shown in the coastal stations, buoys, and ASCAT scatterometer passes. Moreover, the convection - while deep - is now strung out linearly from northeast to southwest, more reminiscent of a front or trough. Thus it does not appear that genesis into a tropical cyclone is imminent. Observations from buoys and the ASCAT passes indicate that the peak winds remain about 30 kt. While the disturbance has plenty of warm water and moist air available, it's being sheared by strong upper-level westerlies. The shear may lessen slightly over the next day or so, allowing a short window of opportunity for the system to undergo genesis and some intensification. But in about 36-48 hr, the shear should go back up as the system reaches cooler SSTs, likely limiting the intensification as a tropical cyclone. At about the same time, the system should transform into an extratropical cyclone and further develop via baroclinic forcing. The intensity forecast shows a slightly delayed genesis and more gradual intensification through 24 hr compared to the previous advisory and about the same thereafter. This forecast is based upon a blend of the statistical, hurricane-mesoscale, and global models. The disturbance is officially shown as stationary, but this is an educated guess without a well-defined center being present. After meandering for another 12 hr or so, the system should consolidate and begin accelerating off toward the northeast. The mesoscale and global guidance shows higher uncertainty than usual in the 12-36 hr time frame and lower uncertainty for the 72 hr and beyond forecasts, likely because of the variability in the models of where and when a well-defined center forms. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. The track, intensity, and size forecasts for 48 hr and beyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. Note that even though potential impacts from this system's winds could occur within the 36 hr time frame for a Tropical Storm Warning, because the intensity forecast is for a low-end tropical storm and the winds are all over the eastern semicircle, the threat of coastal tropical storm winds remains possible but low. Thus the Tropical Storm Watch for portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are retained at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 30.3N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1800Z 31.1N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.9N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/1800Z 35.0N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z 37.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z 41.0N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z 48.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-08-28 10:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 280855 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 23(23) 12(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 8( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FLORENCE SC 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 13(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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