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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-02 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 1 the center of Irma was located near 19.1, -40.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-02 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020242 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 40.5W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 40.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-01 22:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 20:56:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2017 21:23:40 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-01 22:50:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012050 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long. Satellite images indicate that the cycle is now complete, with Irma displaying a larger warm eye. The initial wind speed has been set to 105 kt, in agreement with the CIMSS ADT. Since the eyewall cycle is finished, some strengthening is possible, although SSTs are currently pretty marginal. Although no increase in winds is shown in the short term, this could be conservative. During the next few days, water temperatures along the track will warm significantly, but there could be some higher shear, and of course more eyewall replacements. The forecast is a compromise between the statistical/dynamical models, which bring the intensity down then up again, versus the global models and hurricane models, which show a rather strong cyclone. The westward turn of Irma has begun, and the current motion is 275/12. A building mid-level high should cause the hurricane to turn west-southwestward tomorrow and continue through early next week. Later on, Irma should reach the southern periphery of the ridge, and begin to move west-northwestward. The biggest change since the last forecast is that the GFS and its ensemble has trended southwestward, toward the unwavering ECMWF model on the track forecast. Given the trend in guidance, little change is made to the official track prediction, although the corrected consensus models and the HWRF are now southwest of the latest forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.8N 39.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.9N 40.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 45.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 16.4N 52.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 56.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 19.0N 61.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-09-01 22:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 012050 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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