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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-02 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 2 the center of Irma was located near 19.0, -41.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 12
2017-09-02 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020848 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 ...IRMA CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN STRENGTH BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 41.8W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 41.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next couple of days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-02 05:16:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 03:16:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 03:26:00 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-02 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020242 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 After developing a nearly clear eye during the afternoon hours, Irma appears to have once again temporarily peaked. A WindSat pass around 2100 UTC hinted at the beginning of another eyewall replacement cycle, which would be consistent with the observed cooling of the eye. However, the small size of the hurricane's inner core relative to the resolution of the microwave instrument makes it impossible for me to say for sure. The initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt, but it should be stressed that this is probably just another fluctuation, in what will likely be a long string of small changes in intensity over the next several days. Since we do not have the ability to predict such changes, the NHC forecast shows very gradual intensification throughout the forecast period, given the warm SSTs and increasing moisture content along the forecast track. The NHC forecast is near the intensity consensus, but slightly favors the higher dynamical models. The initial motion remains 275/12 kt. The hurricane has moved a little farther north than previously expected, and the track has been adjusted in that direction. Overall, the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed, and Irma is still expected to turn west-southwestward on Saturday due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic. After about 72 h, there remains a large north-south spread in the guidance, with the GFS continuing to show a weaker ridge (and a northern track), while the ECMWF shows a stronger ridge/southern track. The ECMWF has performed better for Irma thus far, so my forecast continues to favor that solution. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.1N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.0N 42.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.5N 44.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 17.9N 46.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 17.3N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 16.8N 53.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 18.0N 57.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 20.5N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-02 04:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 020242 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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