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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-16 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE FORMS... ...FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 the center of ESTELLE was located near 15.2, -108.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 3
2016-07-16 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160243 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 ...ESTELLE FORMS... ...FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 108.3W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The cyclone should move toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Estelle could become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-07-16 04:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160243 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 23(58) 2(60) X(60) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-07-16 04:43:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160242 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 108.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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