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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-07-17 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 172047 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.5W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.5W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.0N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.4N 119.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 123.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 128.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-17 17:11:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 14:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 15:05:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-07-17 16:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A large burst of deep convection developed over the center of Estelle overnight and continues this morning. A timely SSMIS microwave overpass was very helpful in examining the structure and center location of the tropical cyclone. The microwave data revealed a well-defined low-level ring located near the northwestern edge of the primary convective band, but there was no evidence of a mid-level eye. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 3.5 and 4.0, respectively, and UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have risen to T3.5/55 kt. These data support an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of Estelle should keep the tropical cyclone moving on a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, Estelle will be approaching the western portion of the ridge, which should allow the tropical cyclone to gain more latitude. The guidance is more tightly clustered today than it was 24 hours ago, so there is increased confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track is near the Florida State Superensemble and an average of the GFS/ECMWF models. There appears to be some north or northwesterly shear still affecting Estelle, but the shear is not expected to be strong enough to prevent intensification during the next day or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax, and Estelle is forecast to strengthen at a faster rate on Monday. The track of the tropical cyclone brings it over cooler waters in 2 to 3 days, which should start the weakening process, and it should continue throughout the remainder of the forecast period. The updated intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the intensity consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 17.6N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 17.9N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 122.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 20.8N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-17 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 the center of ESTELLE was located near 16.3, -111.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 9
2016-07-17 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 ...ESTELLE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 111.8W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 111.8 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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