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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-07-18 10:44:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 180844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-18 05:11:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2016 02:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2016 03:05:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-18 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Estelle looks a little less organized than this afternoon, since the eye feature seen on previous microwave imagery has disappeared and the tropical cyclone is displaying a more asymmetric pattern. The initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB. It seems like some northwesterly shear is preventing much intensification at this time. The shear, however, should abate during the next 24 hours, which would allow for gradual strengthening until the storm reaches cooler water in a couple of days. Thereafter, a more steady weakening is likely, and Estelle should become post-tropical in about 5 days while it moves over 23 deg C waters. The models have backed off somewhat on the peak intensity, and the official forecast follows suit, although the new prediction is higher than the consensus for the first few days. Best estimate of initial motion is to the west-northwest at about 8 kt. Estelle should continue to move on that general course for the next couple of days, with perhaps a bend toward the west in 3 days due to the subtropical ridge to the north temporarily strengthening. Overall, the global models are showing less ridging between 130-140W at long range, which would cause Estelle to turn west-northwestward or even northwestward by the end of the forecast period. Accordingly, most of the models have again shifted northward this cycle, and the official forecast is moved in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.0N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 18.0N 116.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.6N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-07-18 04:34:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180234 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 79 12(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 26 28(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ISLA CLARION 64 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-18 04:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 the center of ESTELLE was located near 17.0, -113.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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