je.st
news
Tag: estelle
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-17 23:11:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 20:48:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 21:05:14 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
estelle
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-17 22:49:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172049 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Recent satellite data have given mixed signals on the overall structure of Estelle. In visible satellite pictures, a band of convection has wrapped around the center, and what looks like a ragged eye has appeared. However, recent microwave imagery suggest that the structure is not as well organized with the low-level center displaced to west of the mid-level center, likely the result of continued northwesterly shear. Subjective T-numbers of 4.0 from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt, but, given the lack of inner-core organization, the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. Recent ASCAT data revealed a large radius of maximum winds, and larger area of tropical-storm-force winds, which required an outward adjustment of the wind radii. Estelle continues to move westward to west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to move west-northwestward to the south of a strong subtropical ridge during the next several days. Estelle will be nearing the western portion of the ridge by day 5 and a turn toward the northwest is predicted near the end of the period. Although the guidance is still in fairly good agreement, most of the models have shifted northward this cycle. The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly, but it lies just south of the multi-model consensus and the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks. The moderate northwesterly shear over the tropical storm is expected to weaken during the next 24 hours, which should allow for gradual intensification. Estelle is predicted to reach peak intensity in 36-48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance. After that time, cooler water and a more stable airmass should induce weakening, and Estelle is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.0N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 19.0N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.0N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-07-17 22:48:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 172048 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 48 39(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLA CLARION 50 2 44(46) 3(49) X(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) ISLA CLARION 64 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-17 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 the center of ESTELLE was located near 16.5, -112.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
estelle
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 10
2016-07-17 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172047 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 112.5W ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 112.5 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Estelle is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported on Socorro Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] next »