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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2016-07-17 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170843 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 6 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 3 34(37) 41(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 25(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 8

2016-07-17 10:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170842 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.1W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.1W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 112.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.3N 121.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 125.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.7N 131.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics

2016-07-17 05:11:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 02:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 03:05:13 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)

2016-07-17 04:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ESTELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 the center of ESTELLE was located near 16.1, -110.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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