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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-07-17 16:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC SUN JUL 17 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 5 59(64) 15(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ISLA CLARION 50 X 14(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-17 11:11:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 08:44:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jul 2016 09:05:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-07-17 10:47:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170847 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 A large increase in both the areal coverage and depth of the central convective cloud mass has occurred since the previous advisory due to the development of a irregularly shaped CDO. Cloud tops near the alleged center have been -80C and colder during the past couple of hours. Recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave passes indicate that the low-level circulation center has become better defined, and has also moved closer to the strongest convection and farther into the CDO. As a result, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to a consensus T3.5/55 kt. However, UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC objective Dvorak estimates are only T2.8/41 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively. Given that the aforementioned microwave images still indicated some southward tilt to the mid-level center due to modest northerly vertical shear, the initial intensity has only been increased to 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is westward or 280/08 kt. A motion between west and west-northwest is expected for the next 96 hours as Estelle moves along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer to its north. After that time, a strong mid-latitude upper-level trough/low currently located near 25N/119W is forecast to dig southwestward and erode the ridge, allowing Estelle to turn northwestward into the developing weakness in the subtropical high. The new NHC model guidance remains tightly packed, and the official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) models. Moderate northerly to northwesterly shear is forecast to affect Estelle for the next 36 hours, so only modest intensification is expected. After that, however, the vertical shear is forecast to decrease to around 5 kt through the end of the period, resulting in more substantial strengthening through 72 h while the cyclone remains over favorable SSTs. By 96 h, gradual weakening is forecast to ensue as Estelle begins to move over sub-25C ocean temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains above the model consensus IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models, but close to the FSSE intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.2N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.6N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 121.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.9N 125.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 20.7N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-17 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Jul 17 the center of ESTELLE was located near 16.2, -111.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 8
2016-07-17 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170843 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 ...ESTELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 111.1W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 111.1 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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