je.st
news
Tag: estelle
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-07-18 16:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181450 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 Although the cloud tops are not as cold as they were yesterday, the area of convection is a little more symmetric around the center indicating that the northwesterly shear is relaxing. A couple of recent microwave images also show less tilt between the low- and mid-level centers, however the inner core is still not well organized. The initial wind speed is maintained at 60 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. An automated weather station on Clarion Island, about 35 n mi north of the center, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 kt with a gust to 71 kt. The vertical wind shear over Estelle is forecast to become very low later today, and remain light during the next few days. Since the tropical storm is forecast to remain over warm water for another 36 hours or so, modest strengthening is still anticipated and the NHC forecast and most of the guidance still calls for Estelle to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. In 36 to 48 h, the cyclone will be moving over decreasing SSTs which should commence the weakening process. A faster rate of weakening should begin by 72 hours, when Estelle moves over SSTs below 24C and into a more stable airmass. The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Estelle should move west-northwestward to the south of the subtropical ridge during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Island should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward by day 5. The track guidance is in good agreement, but most of the typically better performing models are along the northern side of the guidance envelope. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a little north of the multi-model consensus and is near a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.7N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.2N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.9N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 27.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-07-18 16:47:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181447 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-18 16:47:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON CLARION ISLAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 the center of ESTELLE was located near 17.7, -114.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
estelle
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 13
2016-07-18 16:47:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181447 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED ON CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 114.9W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 114.9 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is likely during the next day or so, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. An automated weather observing site on Clarion Island recently reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (133 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). A pressure of 995.3 was recently reported on Clarion Island. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-07-18 16:46:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 181446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 127.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] next »