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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-07-16 16:47:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Convective banding associated with Estelle continues to increase and become better organized, with a large band wrapping around the southwestern portion of the circulation, and broken bands of convection to the east and southeast of the center. Recent microwave and early-light visible satellite pictures indicate that the center of the tropical cyclone is located northeast of the earlier estimates, which required some relocation of Estelle for this advisory. With the increase in organization, Dvorak T-numbers have responded accordingly, and support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. Estelle is forecast to remain in a moist and low wind shear environment during the next several days. These conditions, along with warm water along the forecast track, should allow for strengthening, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. After that time, the track forecast takes the cyclone just north of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes, and continued intensification is likely. After 72 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity models, and shows a peak intensity slightly higher than the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Due to the relocation of the center, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt, which is slightly slower than before. Estelle is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during the next few days to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. After that time, there is increasing spread in the guidance due to differences in the strength of the ridge. The GFS depicts a weaker ridge after 72 hours due to a developing trough off the west coast of the United States and takes the tropical cyclone west-northwestward to northwestward near the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF is on the southern side of the guidance envelope as it maintains more ridging and takes Estelle more westward. The updated NHC track lies between these solutions and is close to the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.7N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-16 16:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 the center of ESTELLE was located near 15.7, -109.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 5
2016-07-16 16:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 ...ESTELLE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 109.0W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-07-16 16:46:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161446 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.0W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 109.0W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-07-16 16:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 161446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 41(58) 16(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 15(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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