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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics

2016-07-16 11:11:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2016 08:35:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2016 09:05:14 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)

2016-07-16 10:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ESTELLE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 the center of ESTELLE was located near 15.6, -109.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 4

2016-07-16 10:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 109.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.1N 114.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics

2016-07-16 05:11:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2016 02:45:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Jul 2016 03:05:13 GMT

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 3

2016-07-16 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 The convective structure of the tropical cyclone improved this evening with a curved band reaching halfway around its center. Correspondingly, the subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications each bumped up to a CI number of 2.5, or 35 kt. This is also consistent with the earlier scatterometer pass which showed a maximum of 30 kt at 17Z, when the convective structure was not as organized. Thus the system is now a tropical storm, both the fifth one of the eastern North Pacific season as well as the fifth one in a very busy two-week period. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt, south of an east-west oriented subtropical ridge. The cyclone should be steered toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. All of the reliable global and regional model track guidance are in close agreement and the NHC official track is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The intensity forecast, however, is a bit more uncertain. In the short term, the environment looks generally conducive with moderate northeasterly vertical shear, very warm water, and quite moist conditions. While the shear drops to very low values in about two days, Estelle should start moving over cooler water induced by the upwelling and mixing from the Blas-Celia-Darby trio of storms ahead of it. Thus it is anticipated that the cyclone should steadily intensify and then it may reach its peak strength at about day three. At the longer lead times, gradual weakening may commence if the track stays over the cooler water. This forecast is based upon the consensus of the Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is slightly higher than the previous advisory through day three and about the same at days four and five. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.7N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.7N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.5N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.1N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

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