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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2016-07-16 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162033 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 Estelle's satellite presentation has changed very little since this morning, with a large convective band still wrapping around the western and southwestern portion of the circulation. Satellite data show that there is some northerly shear affecting Estelle, causing a north-south tilt between the low- and mid-level centers and a lack of convection over the northern part of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged since this morning and the initial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with a recent CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate. The northerly shear is forecast to relax during the next day or so, which should allow for strengthening while the tropical cyclone remains over warm water during the next few days. Estelle is expected to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and reach peak intensity in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again a little above the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, but in close agreement with the Florida State Super Ensemble (FSSE). The low-level center has been difficult to pinpoint today as several low cloud swirls have been rotating around a mean center. Based on the recent fixes of the mean center, the initial motion estimate is 290/7 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next few days to the south of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The GFS continues to show less ridging than the ECMWF and has a track that is along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the ECMWF depicts a stronger ridge and a track more westward. The NHC track lies between these solutions and is again close to the FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.2N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.7N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.2N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 18.4N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2016-07-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC SAT JUL 16 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 9(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 39(43) 32(75) 6(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 6(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)

2016-07-16 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ESTELLE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 the center of ESTELLE was located near 15.8, -109.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 6

2016-07-16 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 ...ESTELLE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 109.7W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.7 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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