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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-09 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 14:36:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 15:34:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-10-09 16:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 091435 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 The cloud pattern of the cyclone features a curved band that wraps around the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T2.5/35 kt, and that is used for the initial intensity, making the system a tropical storm. The environment appears conducive for some additional strengthening during the next 24 hours or so, with SSTs above 28C and generally light to moderate westerly shear. After that time, the shear increases to 25-30 kt and SSTs along the forecast track fall below 27C by 72 hours. These factors should result in weakening, and all of the global models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast follows these trends and is close to the various consensus aids through the forecast period. Based on geostationary imagery and a 0815Z SSMIS pass, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/08, with Nadine currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. The ridge will weaken as a mid/upper-level trough that Leslie is embedded in digs southward along 40W longitude. This pattern will cause Nadine to turn more northwestward by 24 hours. By 96 hours, a weakening Nadine should bend back to the west as a shallow system. The new NHC track forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one due to the new initial position, and lies near HCCA through 48 hours and closer to the TVCA multi-model consensus after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 10.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 11.1N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 11.9N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 13.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.3N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 16.7N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-09 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NADINE... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Nadine was located near 10.5, -30.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 2
2018-10-09 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 091434 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NADINE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 30.0W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 30.0 West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A motion toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is forecast on Wednesday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, with weakening expected to begin by early Thursday. Nadine is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-10-09 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 091434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 30.0W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 30.0W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 11.1N 31.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 11.9N 32.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.0N 33.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.3N 34.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.7N 36.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 30.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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