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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-10 22:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 20:45:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 20:45:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-10-10 22:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 102038 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 The exposed low-level center of Nadine is now peeking out from beneath its upper cloud canopy. The initial intensity has been held at 55 kt out of respect for earlier ASCAT data, but it is possible that some weakening has occurred since this morning. Strong westerly wind shear will likely prevent Nadine from becoming any better organized going forward, so the official intensity forecast now calls for steady weakening for the next 2 days. All of the dynamical models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within the next 72 h, and the NHC forecast now shows dissipation occuring by that point. Nadine is moving steadily northwestward with an initial motion of 315/7 kt. As long as Nadine remains a tropical cyclone, it should stay on a similar heading, and the models are in generally good agreement on its track. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the southwest, and is generally close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids at all times. From 48 h onward, the cyclone or its remnant trough will likely be entirely separated from its convection and turn westward in low-level easterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 13.1N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 13.8N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 14.8N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 15.7N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 16.2N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-10-10 22:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 102038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-10 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Nadine was located near 13.1, -32.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 7
2018-10-10 22:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 102038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...NADINE BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 32.2W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Nadine is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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