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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-10-11 22:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 112038 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 34.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 34.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.9N 36.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.7N 40.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 34.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-11 20:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 18:44:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 18:44:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-10-11 16:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 111446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Nadine is strongly sheared and the low-level center of the tropical storm is now completely exposed, nearly 50 n mi to the southwest of the nearest deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased since last night, so the intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This value is still on the high side of the available intensity estimates, but Nadine's intensity has generally been near the top of the intensity estimates for the past few days. Steady weakening is still anticipated because the shear is forecast by all models to increase further during the next day or two. By 72 h, if not sooner, all of the dynamical models forecast that Nadine will have lost its deep convection and degenerated into a trough of low pressure. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. Nadine is still moving northwestward at 7 kt. Since Nadine's surface circulation has become completely exposed and the vortex is likely becoming very shallow, a quicker turn toward the west-northwest and west is now shown in the official track forecast. The track forecast has therefore been adjusted toward the southwest at most forecast times, but is still close to HCCA and TVCN through the short forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 14.1N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.8N 34.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 15.5N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.9N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-11 16:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 14:46:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 14:46:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-10-11 16:46:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 111446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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