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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-10-09 22:31:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 092031 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Nadine is a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon with the center partially exposed on the southwestern side of an increasing area of convection. Dvorak estimates are unchanged since earlier, so the initial wind speed remains 35 kt. The shear is forecast to remain low enough to support strengthening during the next day or so, along with sufficiently warm waters. However, Nadine should encounter a large upper trough after that time, which should cause weakening to begin on Thursday. Later on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are expected to cause Nadine to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. Model guidance is in fair agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC prediction is close to the previous one and the model consensus. Satellite imagery today shows that Nadine has turned rightward and is moving 300/7. A northwestward track should begin overnight and continue for the next few days due to steering from a mid-level ridge near the Cabo Verde Islands. A westward turn is expected beyond day 3 as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates. The track forecast isn't super confident because it is somewhat dependent on the intensity. For example, a stronger cyclone like the GFS shows would have the potential to move more toward the north- northwest as it attempts to remain a vertically coherent system. Since Nadine isn't expected to get very strong, the official forecast will stay near or just south of the model consensus, which results in no significant change to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 10.9N 30.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 11.6N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 12.6N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 13.7N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.0N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-09 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Nadine was located near 10.9, -30.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 3
2018-10-09 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 092030 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...NADINE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 30.6W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 30.6 West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a motion generally toward the northwest is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with weakening anticipated on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-10-09 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 092030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 30.6W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 30.6W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 30.3W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.6N 31.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.6N 32.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.7N 33.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 30.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-10-09 22:30:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 092030 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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