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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 6
2018-10-10 16:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 101447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...NADINE STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 31.6W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 31.6 West. Nadine is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated today, with weakening likely by tomorrow. Nadine is forecast to dissipate over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-10-10 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 101447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 31.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 31.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 31.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.5N 32.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.6N 32.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.7N 33.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.5N 35.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 39.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 31.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-10 10:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 08:36:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 09:34:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-10-10 10:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100835 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Nadine continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave images indicate that the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a concentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement with 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nadine has about another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable atmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period. Thereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in southwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening. The combination of strong shear, drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open into a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner. The compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the center is a little to the right of the previous forecast track. A continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the east-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in. After that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left until dissipation. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one due to the more northward initial motion and position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 12.1N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 12.8N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 13.9N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 38.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-10-10 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 100834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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