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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-11 04:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 02:41:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 03:34:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-11 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Another burst of deep convection has formed near the center of Nadine, which is typical in sheared tropical cyclones. A recent ASCAT pass indicated several believable 50-55 kt winds, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The shear is only forecast to increase over the next couple of days, which should lead to weakening, especially by Friday. All of the dynamical models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend, and no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Nadine continues to move northwestward due to a ridge near the Cabo Verde Islands. This general course is forecast for the next day or so until Nadine become a more shallow system, which should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. The previous interpolated forecast came in basically on top of the new consensus and corrected-consensus guidance, so the new track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 13.6N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.3N 33.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.3N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 16.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-11 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Nadine was located near 13.6, -32.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 8
2018-10-11 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 110240 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...NADINE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 32.7W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 32.7 West. Nadine is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-10-11 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 110240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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