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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-10-10 04:39:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Deep convection has been increasing in the eastern semicircle of Nadine, with the center close to the western edge of large convective band. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved in the past several hours, although the outflow is limited west of the center. While subjective estimates are unchanged from the last advisory, microwave-based estimates suggest Nadine is somewhat stronger, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt. Light or moderate shear is anticipated during the next day or so, along with sufficiently warm waters, which should promote strengthening. However, Nadine should encounter a large upper trough after that time, which will likely cause weakening to begin on Thursday. Later on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are expected to cause Nadine to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. The most significant change is that the model guidance is notably higher than the last cycle, with a few models even making Nadine a hurricane eventually. That seems unlikely given the strength of the forecast shear, but the forecast is nudged higher than the previous one and the model consensus. Nadine continues to turn rightward and is now moving northwestward at about 7 kt. This general course is forecast for the next couple of days due to steering from a mid-level ridge near the Cabo Verde Islands. After that time, a west-northwestward or westward turn is expected as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates. The model spread is still fairly wide, with the stronger guidance generally on the eastern side of the model envelope, and the weaker guidance on the western side. There is definitely a slight trend to the northeast with the latest model guidance, and since we are expecting a stronger system, the official forecast is adjusted in that direction, but not nearly as far to the right as most of the GFS-based guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 11.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 12.3N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 13.4N 32.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 14.8N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 16.0N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 17.5N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-10-10 04:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 100238 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)

2018-10-10 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 9 the center of Nadine was located near 11.6, -31.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 4

2018-10-10 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 ...NADINE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 31.0W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 31.0 West. Nadine is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general is expected for the next couple of days, with a turn to the west-northwest possible on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with weakening anticipated on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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