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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-10-12 22:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 122032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-10-12 22:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 39.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.7N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 37.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-12 16:43:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:43:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 14:43:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-10-12 16:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 121442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Strong southwesterly shear has caused the center of Nadine to become well removed from the deep convection this morning. Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, the center has become further removed from the convection since that time, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt for this advisory. The strong southwesterly shear is expected to persist over Nadine through the weekend, which should result in steady weakening and dissipation of the system by Sunday, if not sooner. Nadine took a northwestward jog overnight, but now appears to have resumed a west-northwestward heading at about 7 kt. As the storm weakens and becomes a shallower system it should turn westward and accelerate within the low-level trade wind flow. The more northward initial position has required a northward adjustment in the NHC track forecast, but the new forecast again takes Nadine westward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.0N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-12 16:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE WEAKENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 12 the center of Nadine was located near 16.0, -36.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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