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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-10-12 04:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 120254 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-12 04:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120254 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Although Nadine remains under the influence of strong southwesterly shear, a new burst of convection went up a few hours ago and covered the low-level center again. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Even stronger shear is expected to cause Nadine to weaken during the next day or two, and the global models all agree that the system will open up into a trough by 48 hours. The updated NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Nadine is moving west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. A low-level ridge is forecast to steer the cyclone west-northwestward and then westward at an increasing speed until it dissipates by 48 hours. The new track guidance has bended slightly southwestward on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that direction toward the multi-model consensus aids and HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.9N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 15.2N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.8N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-12 04:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Nadine was located near 14.9, -35.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 12
2018-10-12 04:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 120253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...NADINE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 35.5W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 35.5 West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nadine is expected to dissipate by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-10-12 04:53:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 120253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 35.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 35.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 36.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.6N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.8N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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