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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-11 22:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-11 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 112039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Nadine continues to be strongly sheared. A brief burst of deep convection occurred near the center of the cyclone a few hours ago, but the center has since become exposed once again. The initial intensity has been decreased to 45 kt based primary on the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. Additional weakening is likely over the next day or so while Nadine remains strongly sheared. The regional and global models now show Nadine degenerating into a trough of low pressure within 48 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC forecast. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward with an initial speed of 7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Nadine will continue on a similar heading and speed for the next 24 h or so, before turning toward the west as it weakens. The NHC forecast has been nudged to the southwest at most forecast points, and is generally near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 14.5N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.9N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.5N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 15.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-10-11 22:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 112038 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Nadine (AT5/AL152018)
2018-10-11 22:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NADINE WEAKER... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Nadine was located near 14.5, -34.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 11
2018-10-11 22:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 112038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...NADINE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 34.9W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 34.9 West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is anticipated by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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