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Tropical Storm Nadine Public Advisory Number 14
2018-10-12 16:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT35 KNHC 121442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 ...NADINE WEAKENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 36.2W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 36.2 West. Nadine is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nadine is expected to dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nadine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-10-12 16:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 121442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-10-12 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 121441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.1N 37.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.3N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.5N 43.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 36.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2018-10-12 11:00:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 09:00:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Oct 2018 09:34:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-12 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120846 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 A 0353 UTC AMSR-2 microwave overpass and GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery show that the 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear, depicted in the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, is partially exposing, or decoupling, Nadine's surface circulation from the convective mass. The cloud pattern, however, hasn't changed during the past 6 hours and in fact, the cloud top temperatures in the curved band over the north semicircle have decreased somewhat. TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates remained unchanged, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The Decay SHIPS statistical intensity model indicates that the shear will persist and increase a little more which should cause Nadine to spin down and dissipate in 48 hours, or possibly sooner. The large-scale models all show the cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure and ultimately dissipating over the deep tropical central Atlantic at that time. The official forecast follows suit and is an update of the previous advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/7 kt. A low to mid-level ridge anchored between Nadine to the south and Hurricane Leslie to the north, should steer the cyclone west-northwestward and then westward at an accelerated pace until dissipation. The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a little south and toward both the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.2N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.8N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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