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Tropical Depression DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-08-03 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 030832 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC SAT AUG 03 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 8 17 18 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 47 50 45 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 44 32 35 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 1 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Center: Dorian still not totally gone
2013-08-03 02:52:43| Railroads - Topix.net
A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian is producing showers between the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida East Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Remnants of DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-07-27 22:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 272032 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THUS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 18.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Remnants of DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-07-27 22:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 272032 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 58 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 40 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Remnants of DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-27 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 27 the center of DORIAN was located near 18.9, -54.7 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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