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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-08-02 16:51:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021451 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-08-02 16:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.2N 130.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.6N 132.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.9N 134.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 135.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 129.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-02 11:15:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 08:57:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 09:07:33 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-02 10:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020859 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 Satellite images indicate that Iselle continues to become better organized during the past several hours with a ragged eye feature present on the shortwave infrared channel. Microwave data also show that the inner core has become better defined on the last SSMI/S pass. There is quite a disparity, however, of current satellite intensity estimates, ranging from 55 to 90 kt. Since the cyclone appears somewhat better organized than 6 hours ago, the wind speed is raised to 70 kt, but this estimate is more uncertain than average. Iselle has turned westward and appears to be moving 280/9, although recently has wobbled due westward. The subtropical ridge to the northwest of the cyclone should remain firm for the next several days, continuing the general westward motion. There has been a notable southward shift to most of the guidance overnight with less influence now expected from a digging trough along 130W in a couple of days. The ridge is expected to strengthen at long range, causing a faster westward motion at that time. The new NHC track forecast is shifted southward at all times, especially at Day 3 and beyond, close to the model consensus. Although Iselle has good inner core structure, a combination of moderate northeasterly shear and decreasing SSTs is expected to limit the chance for significant strengthening over the next couple of days. However, the overall environment is not that unfavorable, so little change in wind speed is forecast through 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will likely encounter drier air aloft, marginal SSTs and more significant shear by Day 5, which should cause weakening. The new forecast is kept very similar to the previous forecast, which lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 128.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 133.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 16.0N 134.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.5N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-08-02 10:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020856 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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