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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-04 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL ISELLE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of ISELLE was located near 16.0, -135.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 16
2014-08-04 10:51:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...POWERFUL ISELLE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 135.6W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-08-04 10:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040850 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-04 08:00:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 06:00:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 05:58:45 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-04 08:00:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040559 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 The satellite presentation of Iselle has become much better organized over the past few hours with a warm, well-defined eye and strong convection in the eyewall. A special 0500 UTC Dvorak classification from TAFB had a Data-T value of 6.0, or 115 kt, with constraints suggesting a slightly lower final wind speed. CIMSS ADT values have been running near 110 kt for the past six hours, and this will be used as the initial intensity. With Iselle's current annular structure, little change in intensity is foreseen in the near-term. A slow weakening could begin by late Monday due to the hurricane encountering a somewhat less favorable thermodynamic environment. The official NHC wind speed prediction has been raised significantly from the previous one through 36 hours due to the stronger initial intensity. No changes have been made to the intensity forecast beyond 72 hours at this time. No changes have been made to the previous forecast track in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0600Z 16.0N 135.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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