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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-08-03 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032038 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 135.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.8N 136.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 151.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 157.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-03 16:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 14:35:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 14:33:43 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-03 16:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031434 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 It hasn't been particularly steady, but Iselle continues on a gradual strengthening trend. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become a little more symmetric. Dvorak estimates are now T5.5/102 kt from SAB, T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, and near 110 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Therefore, the maximum winds are set at 100 kt as a blend of these numbers, making Iselle a major hurricane. The intensity forecast has been complicated. Iselle continues to push through the peak intensities shown in previous model cycles, so apparently the environment has been a little more favorable than expected. Vertical shear has decreased since yesterday, but still the latest model runs do not show any additional intensification, presumably because the thermodynamic environment is becoming more marginal. The NHC forecast maintains Iselle at 100 kt for the next 12 hours and then only gradually weakens it through 48 hours, but given the hurricane's history, I can't rule out some additional strengthening in the short term. Interestingly, the statistical models are stronger than the dynamical models during the first 48 hours, but the scenario flip-flops on days 3 through 5 with the dynamical models maintaining a stronger cyclone as Iselle approaches the Hawaiian Islands. For now, the NHC forecast closely follows the intensity consensus ICON and is unchanged from the previous advisory beyond 48 hours. The initial motion is 280/9 kt. Ridging to the north of Iselle is expected to maintain a westward heading for the next 3 days, but the forward motion will decrease in about 36 hours as that ridge weakens. After day 3, Iselle is forecast to turn west- northwestward and accelerate when a mid-level high develops halfway between Hawaii and California. The track models are in good agreement for the entire forecast period, but as mentioned in the previous advisory, a slight northward adjustment was needed in the official forecast on days 4 and 5 to account for recent model trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.5N 132.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.6N 134.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 136.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.7N 137.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 15.8N 139.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 16.5N 143.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-08-03 16:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031434 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 14(34) X(34) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-03 16:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.5, -132.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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