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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-08-03 04:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030233 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 3(40) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-03 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 02:33:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 02:32:45 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-02 23:22:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 20:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Aug 2014 21:09:30 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-02 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022035 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 Despite continued north-northeasterly shear, Iselle has strengthened to category 2 strength during the past few hours. The deep convection remains a little asymmetric, favoring the eastern semicircle, but Dvorak estimates have still risen to T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT. These data, combined with an earlier AMSU estimate of 78 kt, support raising the initial intensity to 85 kt. The vertical shear, such as it is, is still expected to diminish during the next 12-24 hours. At the same time, Iselle will be moving over decreasing oceanic heat content values, and the stronger winds will likely lead to increased upwelling of colder water. The official forecast allows for a little more intensification in the short term, but after 24 hours the less favorable thermodynamic environment should induce gradual weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little bit higher than the previous one only during the first 3 days to account for the higher initial intensity. Beyond day 3, the GFDL and HWRF keep Iselle near the threshold of hurricane intensity while the statistical models show a more marked decrease in winds. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the LGEM and FSU Superensemble on days 4 and 5. Iselle's initial motion is 280/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to maintain a general westward motion but could slow down a bit in 48-72 hours when the ridge to the north of Iselle weakens. By days 4 and 5, a mid-level high northeast of Hawaii is anticipated to strengthen and slide eastward, which should impart a faster westward motion at the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, but most of the models, particularly the ECMWF and GFDL, have shifted northward on this cycle. The updated NHC track forecast is also nudged northward on days 4 and 5 and lies close to the FSU Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 15.7N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.9N 135.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 17.5N 150.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-08-02 22:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 022034 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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