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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-08-04 07:59:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0600 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040558 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0600 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-04 07:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 the center of ISELLE was located near 16.0, -135.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 15
2014-08-04 07:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040558 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 ...ISELLE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 135.2W ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.2 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-08-04 07:58:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0600 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040557 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0600 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W AT 04/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.2W AT 04/0600Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 134.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 135.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-04 06:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.9, -134.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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