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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-02 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 2 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.1, -130.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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ep4ep092014
Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 9
2014-08-02 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 022034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 ...ISELLE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 130.1W ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1675 MI...2695 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-02 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 2 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.0, -129.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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iselle
ep4ep092014
Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 8
2014-08-02 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021451 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 ...ISELLE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 129.2W ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1735 MI...2795 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-02 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021451 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 Iselle has maintained an eye during the past several hours, but the deepest convection has been unable to persist within the western eyewall. According to UW-CIMSS shear analyses, about 15 kt of north-northeasterly shear is affecting the hurricane, and a recent TRMM pass indicated that the mid-level center is displaced about 10-15 n mi south of the low-level center. The maximum winds are still estimated to be 70 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. Moderate vertical shear is expected to persist for another 12 hours or so and then become negligible between 24-72 hours. Even though sea surface temperatures are expected to stay near or just above 26C through the next 5 days, oceanic heat content is forecast to drop significantly in about 24-36 hours. Therefore, mixing and upwelling of colder water is likely to limit significant additional strengthening. The intensity models are in good agreement in showing Iselle leveling off around 75 kt during the next couple of days, and the official forecast maintains that scenario. Cooler ocean water and increased shear are expected to cause weakening beyond day 3. Iselle is located to the south of a mid-level ridge, which is steering the hurricane westward with an initial motion of 280/9 kt. A mid-level shortwave trough is still expected to develop to the north of Iselle in about 48 hours, but its only real effect will be to weaken the steering flow for a day or two. After day 3, mid-level ridging is forecast to restrengthen to the north and northeast of Iselle, causing the cyclone to accelerate westward by the end of the forecast period. There continues to be some latitudinal spread in the track guidance, especially on days 4 and 5. The updated NHC track forecast is very near the previous forecast and the model consensus TVCE for the sake of continuity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 15.0N 129.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 15.2N 130.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 15.6N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.9N 134.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.0N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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