je.st
news
Tag: iselle
Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 14
2014-08-04 06:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 040437 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 CORRECTED FOR WIND SPEED IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION ...ISELLE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 134.8W ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-04 05:21:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 02:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 03:09:16 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
hurricane graphics
graphics hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-04 04:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040248 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 Iselle's satellite appearance has essentially been steady state since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to exhibit many of the characteristics of an annular hurricane, with a nearly axisymmetric convective structure and a curious lack of convective features outside the well-defined cental dense overcast. A circular but cloud-filled 20-25 n mi wide eye is also evident in last-light visible imagery. The initial intensity is reduced only slightly to 95 kt in accordance with the latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is a steady 280/10, with perhaps more of a due-west wobble during the last couple of hours. A mid-latitude trough extending southwestward along 130w is forecast to weaken the subtropical ridge north of Iselle during the next 24 hours. The effect of the weakened ridge should be a decrease in the cyclone's forward motion for a brief period during the next day or two as it approaches 140w. By day 3, the cyclone should find itself south of a newly established central Pacific ridge, which should steer Iselle west-northwestward at a considerably faster forward speed by days 4-5. The track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope, very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. Even though Iselle is moving over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, its current annular structure in a very light-shear environment suggests that the cyclone might retain a higher intensity than the guidance might suggest if the large-scale environmental conditions do not vary much at least during the next day or possibly two. After that, significantly less favorable thermodynamic factors, such as increasingly drier and more stable air and water temperatures just below 26C, should result in weakening while Iselle nears the Hawaiian Islands. An accelerated weakening may take place as Iselle makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian chain when environmental conditions become even more hostile. The intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.9N 134.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-08-04 04:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 040247 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-08-04 04:47:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 040247 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 134.8W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 134.8W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 134.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] next »