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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-03 11:21:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 08:53:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 09:09:14 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-03 11:18:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 3 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.3, -131.8 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 11
2014-08-03 11:18:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030917 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 CORRECTED MOTION IN DISCUSSION SECTION ...ISELLE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 131.8W ABOUT 1565 MI...2515 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-03 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030851 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 The overall satellite presentation of Iselle hasn't changed much during the past several hours with strong convection in the eyewall and an eye which is intermittently obscured by cirrus clouds. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly, so the initial wind speed will remain 95 kt. Although Iselle is probably near peak intensity, it still has a short window of time today to become a major hurricane. It is not likely to strengthen much, however, due to Iselle moving closer to a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Since wind shear is forecast to remain low, only gradual weakening is anticipated after today while Iselle moves over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days. One possible pitfall of this forecast is that, given the forecast storm environment, Iselle could evolve into an annular hurricane, which could delay the weakening during that time. Late in the period, an increase in both shear and drier air aloft will probably help to weaken the storm while it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The official NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one and the intensity consensus. The cyclone continues to move westward or 275/9. A subtropical ridge north of Iselle should steer the storm on this general path for the next few days, with a slight deceleration expected in a day or so due to the ridge temporarily weakening. Guidance is in very good agreement through day 3, and the NHC forecast through that time us basically an update of the previous one. After that time, Iselle should move on a more west-northwestward heading at a faster forward speed due to the ridge rebuilding. The model guidance has shifted northward on this cycle, which seems reasonable given the forecast synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is moved in that direction. It should be noted that the bulk of the guidance is north of the latest NHC forecast at long range, and further adjustments in that direction could be required on later forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-08-03 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030851 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 1(35) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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