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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-08-03 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030851 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0900 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 131.8W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 131.8W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 131.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-08-03 04:50:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030250 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 CORRECTED FOR ADJUSTED INTENSITY FORECAST AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) 3(38) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-03 04:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030238 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 Iselle is still strengthening. The central dense overcast has become more symmetric since the last advisory, with cloud top temperatures cooling slightly. The eye was also becoming better defined but has recently become obscured by overshooting convective tops. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC were T5.0/90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT values are at 5.4/99 kt. These data support increasing the initial intensity estimate to 95 kt. The initial motion estimate is just north of due west or 275/09. A subtropical ridge north of Iselle should allow the current motion to persist in the short term. However, a mid-latitude trough digging roughly along 130W should temporarily weaken the ridge during the next day or two, causing the forward speed of Iselle to nominally decrease. When the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the central Pacific after day 3, Iselle should move on a westward and then west-northwestward heading a faster forward speed. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement throughout the forecast period, and the forecast track is adjusted only slightly to the south in the direction of the multi-model consensus TVCE. It is difficult to see Iselle strengthening much further. Although northeasterly shear over the cyclone is forecast to decrease during the next couple of days, the thermodynamic contribution from the environment should gradually become less favorable. This would suggest that some additional intensification is possible in the very short term, followed by slow weakening after 24 hours. The one caveat would be that with little shear and marginally favorable thermodynamic conditions Iselle could evolve into an annular hurricane and maintain a somewhat higher intensity during the next few days. By days 4 and 5, even less favorable thermodynamic factors and an uptick in south-southwesterly shear should result in quicker weakening as Iselle approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the previous one in the short term and represents a blend of the multi-model consensus and FSU Superensemble output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 15.2N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 15.4N 132.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.6N 134.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.7N 136.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 15.9N 141.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.6N 146.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.8N 152.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-03 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 2 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.2, -131.0 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 10
2014-08-03 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014 ...ISELLE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 131.0W ABOUT 1475 MI...2370 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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